Small, organic farms the future says Peak Oil analyst

Among the implications for agriculture he identifies the following.

  • Gigantic highly petro-chemical dependant, broad-acre monoculture farming will slowly disappear from the agricultural landscapes of the world.
  • The European, Japanese and Korean opposition to including there own agriculture in free-trade negotiations will be vindicated as international food trade declines in the face of rising fuel cost and slower less reliable transportation.
  • Real cost of food will rise.
  • Total world food production thence supply will fall!
  • Despite all the best good-will in the world, less practical / food aid will not be available to famine victims around the world, because there will be just less food, and with slowing transportation getting relief quickly in quantity to any given destination will inevitably become implausible.
  • The growing of cereals will switch from the strategy using a monoculture of some annual crop variety (plants that only last one season, then must be replanted the next year again from seeds) to fields growing a permanent mix a few different perennial (plants that produce for a number of consecutive seasons) crops simultaneously.
  • Farm sizes will decrease to smaller more manageable family size concerns.
  • Organic farming will grow in popularity as petro-chemical input cost rise.
  • Altogether new (perennial) plant species genetically engineered by public universities in the developing world will be tightly targeted to roles like;- fighting desertification, food provision on marginal land or hostile tropical climates.
  • Australia’s live sheep trade to the Middle East will decline as;- fuel cost rise, slower shipping necessitates more en-route cost to maintain animal health during longer voyages.

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