Climate change in Australia — of the political variety — is real and happening now. As a fresh opinion poll rolls in every few days, the underlying trend is moving inexorably against Labor. Here’s a sampling over the past week:
Federal: Newspoll, published today, shows little change in party polling (government ahead on two-party-preferred terms 52-48), but Tony Abbott’s satisfaction rating jumped four points to 48. Yesterday’s Essential Research has Labor’s lead at a new low of 53-47, down from 54-46 last week and 55-45 a week before.
Victoria: Nine months out from a state election, yesterday’s Morgan Poll puts Liberal and National support at 50.5, leading the ALP (49.5) for the first time on a two-party preferred basis. And although John Brumby (50.5) is clearly preferred as the “better Premier ” ahead of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu (30.5), 47% disapprove of Brumby’s handling of the job compared to only 37% who approve.
South Australia: A Sunday Mail poll over the weekend showed a swing of around 10 per cent against Labor in the key marginal seat of Morialta, weeks out from a state election.
Tasmania: Last Wednesday’s EMRS poll had Labor are down two points since November to 31, the Liberals down five to 39 and the Greens are up six to 27 — which would give the Greens the balance of power in this month’s state election.
Even allowing for local factors, margins of error, temporary issues and blips, you’d be hard pressed not to conclude that the punters are uneasy and the mood is running against the incumbents everywhere.
Batten down the hatches.