Galaxy Poll 17.5.2014

Polling

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COALITION CONTINUE TO SLIDE

Support for the Coalition continues to slide as the first Budget for the new Government approaches. So far, the Coalition has been unable to convince voters of the need for austerity and there is widespread opposition to some of the revenue saving measures being proposed in the Budget.

Primary Vote

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014 30 Apr/1 May 2014
Coalition 45.5% 43% 39%
Labor Party 33.4% 37% 37%
The Greens 8.7% 10% 11%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 4% 6%
Another party or independent 6.9% 6% 7%

9% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014 30 Apr/1 May 2014
Coaltion 53.5% 50% 48%
Labor Party 46.5% 50% 52%

Deficit levy

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Yes 72% 90% 52%
No 21% 6% 41%
Uncommitted 7% 4% 7%

Thinking now about the federal Budget. One option to raise revenue would be a deficit levy. This would be a short-term tax on incomes above $80,000 a year. Given that Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes, if the Government was to introduce this deficit levy in the Budget would you consider this a broken promise?

Pension age

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
In favour 21% 13% 34%
Opposed 69% 81% 57%
Uncommitted 10% 6% 9%

Are you in favour or opposed to lifting the pension age to 70 years?

Medicare co-payment

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
In favour 35% 25% 54%
Opposed 55% 67% 36%
Uncommitted 10% 8% 10%

Are you in favour or opposed to a $6 co-payment for bulk-billed GP visits?

Paid parental leave

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Yes 23% 23% 26%
No 65% 67% 62%
Uncommitted 12% 10% 12%

In your opinion, should Tony Abbott proceed with the Paid Parental Leave scheme in the current budgetary environment?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered by a combination of online and telephone interviews between 30 April and 1 May 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 1,391 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

FEDERAL COALITION AND LABOR NECK AND NECK

Primary support for the Coalition has slipped since the election last year and they are now running neck and neck with Labor. If Joe Hockey hands down a tough Budget in May this would be likely to undermine support in the Coalition even further as the new government has been unable to convince voters of the need to curb spending on welfare.

Primary Vote

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014
Coalition 45.5% 43%
Labor Party 33.4% 37%
The Greens 8.7% 10%
Another party or independent 12.4% 10%

7% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014
Coaltion 53.5% 50%
Labor Party 46.5% 50%

Accept cuts to welfare

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Yes 34% 18% 56%
No 56% 73% 34%
Uncommitted 10% 9% 10%

The federal Budget will be handed down in May by Joe Hockey. It is likely that this will include cuts to government spending. Do you accept that this should include cuts to the amount the government spends on welfare?

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on the weekend of 28-30 March 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 998 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

VOTERS WANT INDEPENDENTS TO SUPPORT MARSHALL

The majority of voters in the seats of Fisher and Frome would like their independent local members to support Steven Marshall in order to permit the Liberals to form a minority government. The voters believe the Independents should look beyond their local electorate and base their decision on the interests of all South Australians.

Party Independents should support

  Total Fisher Frome
Labor Party 31% 27% 35%
Liberal Party 60% 66% 53%
Uncommitted 9% 7% 12%

In your opinion, which party should (Geoff Brock/ Bob Such) support to permit them to form government?

Basis of decision

  Total Fisher Frome
Best deal for his electorate 29% 22% 37%
Best outcome for SA 61% 70% 52%
Uncommitted 10% 8% 11%

In your opinion, should (Geoff Brock/ Bob Such) make the decision about which party to side with on the basis of securing the best deal for his electorate or ensuring the best outcome for South Australia?

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 17 March 2014 and is based on the opinions of 382 voters in the electorate of Fisher and 317 voters in the electorate of Frome. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of each electorate.

HANNA TO DETERMINE OUTCOME IN MITCHELL

The preferences of the Independent candidate, Kris Hanna, will determine the outcome in the seat of Mitchell.  Neither the sitting member, Alan Sibbons, nor the Liberal candidate, Corey Wingard, will secure the primary vote required to win the seat and so both will be reliant on preferences.  With Kris Hanna attracting the lion’s share of the minor party votes his preferences will be pivotal to the outcome.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2010 12 Mar 2014
Labor Party 34.2% 38%
Liberal Party 28.5% 36%
Kris Hanna 27.8% 19%
 The Greens 5.1% 4%
Family First 4.3% 3%

3% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2010 12 Mar 2014
Labor Party 52.4% 51%
Liberal Party 47.6% 49%

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 12 March 2014 and is based on the opinions of 586 voters in the electorate of Mitchell.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of the electorate.

NEWLAND IN THE BALANCE

On the eve of the state election the seat of Newland is hanging in the balance.  With neither the sitting Labor member, Tom Kenyon, nor the Liberal candidate likely to secure the primary vote required to secure the seat, both will be reliant on the preferences of the minor parties.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2010 12 Mar 2014
Labor Party 43.2% 44%
Liberal Party 38.1% 42%
The Greens 8.0% 6%
Family First 6.9% 8%
Other 3.8%

6% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2010 12 Mar 2014
Labor Party 52.6% 51%
Liberal Party 47.4% 49%

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 12 March 2014 and is based on the opinions of 503 voters in the electorate of Newland.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of the electorate.

SANDERSON SAFELY HOLDING ADELAIDE

Rachel Sanderson, who achieved a shock 14.5% swing in the 2010 election to win the seat of Adelaide, looks set to be returned at the state election on 15 March.  Voters in the seat have generally been satisfied with her performance over the last four years and this has reduced the likelihood of Labor regaining the seat.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2010 4 Mar 2014
Labor Party 33.3% 39%
Liberal Party 44.5% 49%
The Greens 11.7% 8%
Dignity for Disability 1.9% 4%
Other 8.6%

4% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2010 4 Mar 2014
Labor Party 45.8% 46%
Liberal Party 54.2% 54%

Satisfaction with Rachel Sanderson

    Supporters  
  Total Labor Liberal
Satisfied 51% 19% 80%
Dissatisfied 26% 53% 5%
Uncommitted 23% 28% 15%

Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rachel Sanderson has represented Adelaide as your member of parliament?

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 4 March 2014 and is based on the opinions of 587 voters in the electorate of Adelaide.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of the electorate.

VICTORIA IN THE BALANCE

With an election due later in the year the state of Victoria is evenly poised.  While Denis Napthine is seen as a better choice of Premier than Daniel Andrews, the Labor Party hold a narrow lead on a two party preferred basis.

Primary Vote

Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014
The Liberal Party 38.0% 37%
The Nationals 6.8% 5%
Total Coalition 44.8% 42%
Labor Party 36.2% 39%
The Greens 11.2% 12%
Another party or an independent candidate 7.8% 7%

6% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014
Coalition 51.6% 49%
Labor 48.4% 51%

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on the evenings of 26-27 February 2014.  The results are based on the opinions of 1,068 voters.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Victorian population.

COLTON ON A KNIFE EDGE

With less than two weeks to polling day, the metropolitan seat of Colton is in the balance.  Despite the strong level of satisfaction for current Labor member Paul Caica he must withstand a swing to the Liberals if he is to retain the seat.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2010 27 Feb 2014
Labor Party 46.3% 45%
Liberal Party 39.9% 46%
The Greens 8.2% 5%
Family First 3.5% 4%
Other 2.1%

5% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2010 27 Feb 2014
Labor Party 53.6% 50%
Liberal Party 46.4% 50%

Satisfaction with Paul Caica

    Supporters  
  Total Labor Liberal
Satisfied 58% 89% 33%
Dissatisfied 22% 5% 41%
Uncommitted 20% 6% 26%

Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Paul Caica has represented Colton as your member of parliament?

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 27 February 2014 and is based on the opinions of 495 voters in the electorate of Colton.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of the electorate.

COLTON ON A KNIFE EDGE

With less than two weeks to polling day, the metropolitan seat of Colton is in the balance.  Despite the strong level of satisfaction for current Labor member Paul Caica he must withstand a swing to the Liberals if he is to retain the seat.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2010 27 Feb 2014
Labor Party 46.3% 45%
Liberal Party 39.9% 46%
The Greens 8.2% 5%
Family First 3.5% 4%
Other 2.1%

5% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2010 27 Feb 2014
Labor Party 53.6% 50%
Liberal Party 46.4% 50%

Satisfaction with Paul Caica

    Supporters  
  Total Labor Liberal
Satisfied 58% 89% 33%
Dissatisfied 22% 5% 41%
Uncommitted 20% 6% 26%

Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Paul Caica has represented Colton as your member of parliament?

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 27 February 2014 and is based on the opinions of 495 voters in the electorate of Colton.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of the electorate.

NEWMAN LOSING SUPPORT IN ASHGROVE

The Queensland Premier, Campbell Newman, is losing the goodwill of the voters and he would be likely to lose his seat of Ashgrove if an election was held now. Many voters are dissatisfied with his performance and the decision to take on the motorcycle gangs is costing the Premier votes.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2012 6 Feb 2014
Labor Party 36.6% 43%
LNP 51.8% 41%
The Greens 9.2% 7%
Palmer United Party -% 3%
Katter Australian Party 1.7% 1%
Other 0.7% 5%

4% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a state election for Queensland was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2012 6 Feb 2014
Labor Party 44.3% 53%
LNP 55.7% 47%

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 6 February 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 503 voters in Ashgrove. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of the Ashgrove electorate.

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